Link: Kilmar Abrego Garcia and public opinion on deportation

From Heather Cox Richardson’s Letters from an American:

The same Reuters/Ipsos poll says that 82% of Americans, including 68% of Republicans, think “the president should obey federal court rulings even if he disagrees with them.” Only 40% think he “should keep deporting people despite a court order to stop,” although 76% of Republicans think he should violate a court order.

The questions specifically about immigration are even starker. Trump promised during the campaign that he would deport undocumented immigrants who have committed violent crimes, and people like that plan by an 81-point margin. But according to Morris’s crunching of polls on the subject, U.S. adults oppose deporting undocumented immigrants who have lived more than 10 years in the U.S. by a 37-point margin. They oppose deporting undocumented immigrants who are parents of U.S. citizens by a 36-point margin. By an 18-point margin, they oppose deporting undocumented immigrants who have broken no laws in the U.S. other than immigration laws.

The more visible Abrego Garcia’s case becomes, coupled as it is with the idea that it is a precursor to sending U.S. citizens to CECOT, the less likely it is to be popular.

When it’s no longer about policy, and no longer a narrative they completely control, this administration’s lies, lack of compassion, and cruelty are nearly inescapable.

The constant references to him as a gang member and terrorist? Based on an incident where he was outside a Home Depot, looking for work, and police saw he was wearing a Chicago Bulls jacket.

And then there’s the matter of the credibility of the officer on his case who used a confidential informant to attach the gang affiliation to him:

The Maryland police officer who formally attested to Abrego Garcia’s supposed gang affiliation in 2019—when he was detained the first time—was subsequently suspended from the force for a serious transgression: giving confidential information about a case to a sex worker, The New Republic has established.

This officer—apparently a senior detective on Abrego Garcia’s case in 2019—is named Ivan Mendez, according to information provided by Abrego Garcia’s lawyer at the time, Lucia Curiel, who is also a member of his current legal team. Mendez was subsequently indicted for this offense, pleaded guilty, and received probation.

The right story at the right moment can sway a lot of people. A specific narrative holds people’s attention and creates credibility the way vague generalities can’t.

Before, Trump’s attempts to link all immigrants with criminality used named victims of crime committed by undocumented immigrants. Now he just whines a word salad about terrorists, MS-13, and enemies. They can’t use their previous tactics, because the victims in this story are Kilmar Abrego Garcia and his family. He’s married to a US citizen, a dad with three kids, a union member, and he’s been in the country for 14 years.

And the longer the administration digs their heels in, refuses to fix their unlawful deportation and incarceration of this man, the longer this story upends the narrative the administration wants people to believe.

Because if enough people believe not just that Kilmar Abrego Garcia deserves due process, but deserves to be reunited with his family, it’s going to make it a lot harder for this administration to get the public to be chill about what else it would like to do in partnership with El Salvador.